Democratic President Barack Obama and
Republican challenger Mitt Romney both have clear paths to the 270 electoral
votes needed for victory - and they don't all go through Ohio, the state that
both sides have long viewed as key to capturing the White House.
Obama still has a slight electoral map
advantage fueled by his slim lead in Ohio, but Romney has steadily closed the
gap or moved slightly ahead in some other battleground states. Eight states
remain relative toss-ups.
Both candidates can construct multiple
winning scenarios, with or without Ohio. And it's now possible that the tipping
point could emerge from another battleground, such as Colorado, where Obama and
Romney are deadlocked in the polls.
"At this point, there are probably
more electoral map scenarios than there are undecided voters," said Lee
Miringoff, a pollster at Marist College, which is conducting surveys in key
swing states.
"In a 50-50 race ... everything and
everywhere is going to matter," he said.
National polls show the race is a virtual
dead heat, but Obama still has a lead of at least 4 percentage points in states
that account for 237 electoral votes, according to averages compiled by
RealClearPolitics. Romney has a lead of at least that size in states that
represent 201 electoral votes.
That gives Obama slightly more leeway in
the fight for the remaining 95 electoral votes available in the eight toss-up
states, all won by Obama in the 2008 election - Colorado (9 electoral votes),
Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18), Virginia (13)
and Wisconsin (10).
Obama is clinging to slight poll leads -
which typically are less than the polls' margins of error - in five of those
states with a combined 44 electoral votes: Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire
and Wisconsin. That would be enough to put him over the top.
Even if he loses Ohio, Obama could still
get to 270 electoral votes - and clinch the election - by winning Colorado
instead. Obama won Colorado by 9 percentage points in 2008, aided by support
from young and suburban voters and the growing Hispanic vote, but he is
virtually tied with Romney there now.
Romney's path is tougher without Ohio, but
still possible.
The former Massachusetts governor has a
slight lead over Obama in Florida and has pulled even with the president in
Virginia. If Romney sweeps those two states and adds Colorado, he would still
need to win Iowa, New Hampshire and Wisconsin to capture the White House.
NEVADA SLIPPING AWAY FROM ROMNEY?
Of the eight toss-up states, Nevada appears
the least competitive, with analysts and some strategists in both parties
saying it is moving toward Obama.
An NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll on
Thursday gave Obama a 3-point edge in Nevada, and the last six public polls
have shown Obama ahead.
Romney appears to have an advantage in
Florida, where six of the last seven public polls have shown him with a small
lead. RealClearPolitics puts Romney's average lead at 1.8 percentage points,
within most polls' margin of error but symbolic of a trend toward the
Republican, analysts say.
"Once an incumbent loses a grip on the
race, it's very hard to get it back," said Florida-based pollster Brad
Coker of Mason-Dixon. "Florida is gone for Obama, from what I'm seeing on
the ground here. The map seems to be expanding for Romney and shrinking for
Obama."
The multiple electoral scenarios have
sparked speculation about alternative outcomes such as a 269-269 tie in
electoral votes, which would leave the presidency to a vote by the
Republican-led House of Representatives.
Another possibility: one candidate wins the
nationwide popular vote, while the other wins the electoral vote - and walks
away with the presidency.
The most heavily contested prize remains
Ohio, and both campaigns are concentrating their time and resources there.
Obama has an average lead in polls there of 1.9 percentage points, according to
RealClearPolitics. Six of the last nine public polls showed Obama with a slight
edge.
The other three showed a tie, including a
poll released on Sunday by the Cincinnati Enquirer newspaper and the Ohio News
Organization.
"The electoral map tilts slightly to
Obama, but only because Ohio is so important and that's one state where he has
kept a very small lead," said Thomas Riehle, a pollster at the market
research firm YouGov, which also is surveying swing states.
"The polling is so much closer than it
was in 2000 or any other close election year, so everything is hard to
predict," he said.
'AN ILLUSION OF VOLATILITY'
Romney's poll gains since his strong
performance in the first debate on October 3 have been powered by growing voter
confidence in his ability to handle the economy, an increase in his
favorability ratings and gains among women and independents.
But Romney's early and mid-October momentum
seems to have slowed or stopped since Obama's strong performances in the final
two debates. National tracking polls have ebbed and flowed in a narrow range
during the past week, with Romney keeping a slight lead in most.
But in a Reuters/Ipsos national online
tracking poll on Sunday, Obama opened a slight lead on Romney, 49 percent to 46
percent, among likely voters.
On the state level, Romney's surge put him
slightly ahead in Florida and Virginia, but has not been enough for him to overtake
Obama in the Midwestern battlegrounds of Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin.
Those three states alone, added to the
states where Obama already has solid leads, would be enough for the president
to win with 271 electoral votes.
"There is an illusion of volatility
that is created when you have 90 public polls coming out every day," Obama
senior adviser David Axelrod told reporters last week. "The fact of the
matter is, this race has been remarkably stable over a long period of
time."
Obama's support level falls short of the
magic 50 percent mark in most national and swing state polls, a danger sign for
an incumbent who is well known to voters and therefore could be unlikely to win
the support of a majority of those who make late decisions.
The close race has put a premium on each
campaign's ability to identify and turn out their voters, and Obama's camp has
trumpeted its edge in early voting in swing states and its effort to get both
frequent and sporadic voters to the polls.
It is unclear how Hurricane Sandy will affect
early voting along the East Coast - particularly in Virginia. Bob McDonnell,
Virginia's Republican governor and a Romney supporter, has vowed to extend
early voting hours and restore power quickly to voting facilities in the event
of outages.
Obama's Democrats have made early voting a
focus of their campaign and represent a majority of those casting ballots
before Election Day.
But Romney's campaign says early voting
among Republicans in the toss-up states is running ahead of the party's pace in
2008, when Obama defeated Republican John McCain. In Ohio, Republicans are
out-performing their share of registered voters in absentee ballot requests and
early votes, the campaign said.
"The battleground state polls are all
very close, although many are still tipping slightly Obama's way,"
Miringoff said. "It's still very much a flip of the coin situation."
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