Americans
may find it useful to remember how the nation got to this point.
While
politicians and many in the media treat the "fiscal cliff" as some
sort of apocalyptic event, as if it were a date foretold on an ancient Mayan
calendar, it is in fact an invention of the politicians themselves; a set of
drastic steps designed to present such a horrible and unthinkable situation as
to trump the natural inclinations of politics. Whereas representatives and
senators tend to think in terms of their own constituents and decisions that
would help ensure re-election, the cliff was a mutually agreed upon set of
circumstances that would force those interests to come together and compromise
for the good of the whole.
It may
yet work, although so far the strategy hasn't moved either side very far.
We should
also note that politicians on both sides had hoped the 2012 elections would
bring clarity to the matter, with each side hoping its philosophy would
prevail. That didn't happen, although Democrats gained a bit of traction by
retaining the White House and picking up seats in Congress. Each side retains
the power to block the other.
Nearly
two years ago, Congress created a bipartisan committee to design a long-term
solution to the nation's deficit-ridden budget and its growing national debt.
This so-called "super committee" was charged with coming up with at
least $1.2 trillion in savings over 10 years through cuts, tax increases or any
other legal means. It was to do so by Nov. 23, 2011. And just to make sure both
sides took the committee's work seriously, the agreement was for $1.2 trillion
in haphazard cuts to be triggered at the start of 2013 if the committee failed
in its task.
The
committee never came close to succeeding. Members were heavily lobbied by their
own parties in terms of things to which they should not agree, rather than
suggestions for possible points of agreement.
It just
so happened that the Bush-era tax cuts and a temporary cut in payroll taxes
also were set to expire at the start of 2013. Several other tax measures will
expire then, as well. In all, the nation faces $500 billion in tax hikes and
$200 billion in cuts if Congress and the president can't agree on a plan.
But every
single aspect of the "fiscal cliff" was artificially created by
Washington politicians. Congress and the president could simply change the
rules, repeal the automatic cuts and extend the other tax cuts until both sides
can reach an agreement, but doing so may be worse than going over the cliff. If
would indicate to the rest of the world that the United States truly has a
dysfunctional government, and it would destroy whatever credibility Congress
currently retains.
The good
thing about the automatic cuts, or sequestration, that would begin taking
effect Jan.1, is that they are large enough to suggest the proper scope of what
the nation needs in order to keep itself from the path to insolvency. The bad
news is that even such stark consequences haven't budged some politicians
toward the center.
Conventional
wisdom is that even if Congress and the president reach an agreement to avoid
the cliff before next week, it won't be the type of long-term reform needed to
put the nation on a sound fiscal path. That means many more cliffs and crises
ahead.
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