Pollster Map Shows Possible Path For Romney Victory

President Barack Obama leads or ties Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the last 17 national polls, leaving some to wonder if the election is already over.

Charlie Cook at the National Journal insists that, “if something doesn’t happen to shake up the race, Romney will lose.”

But although the current Pollster estimate shows Obama with a commanding lead over Romney, it also shows a possible path to victory for Romney that now includes a handful of states. According to The Huffington Post map, Romney would have to focus his attention on some classic swing states while attempting to get additional support in the Midwest.

The map relies on the newly introduced Pollster model, which uses historical voting data as one guideline in assessing the presidential match-up. The model serves as a snapshot of the election if it were held today, and therefore, the map is likely to change in the next five weeks. The estimate also accounts for random error in the individual polls. Additionally, the model combines national and statewide polling, and draws on geographic patterns in past elections to determine the current standing of the two candidates in individual states. It considers “house effects” of different polling firms, adjusting for Republican- and Democratic-leaning pollsters whose results are consistently on one side or the other.

Initially, Romney’s battle seems uphill: If the election were held today, Obama would win 332 electoral votes, with Romney garnering 191. North Carolina’s 15 votes are currently for the taking, according to the model, but would not swing the outcome of the election.

If Romney could shave 3 or 4 points off of Obama’s lead nationally, however, the electoral map might shift, showing the closest “Lean Obama” states, Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire voting Republican. In that case, Romney would win his lean states, and North Carolina slides easily to his side.

Iowa and Ohio then become essential. Obama and Romney are currently about 5 and 6 points apart, respectively, in the states, and it has been as close as 1 to 2 points in Iowa and 2 to 3 points in Ohio, although Obama has yet to trail in the average of polls in either state in 2012. Move one or the other to Romney red, though, and he would win the presidency.

This outcome is certainly possible. Ohio voted twice for former President George W. Bush, and Iowa tends to be an indicator of the national mood, voting with the winner of the popular vote in every election since 1992. Wisconsin, too, could swing for the Republicans, riding the wave of what would be a dramatic shift in public sentiment against the incumbent through October.

In that case, Romney gets to 301 electoral votes and essentially is in Obama’s current position.

While these outcomes might seem unlikely to some, the Romney campaign believes it is in a very tight race. There are also the day-to-day phenomena influencing public opinion. Obama, for example, could still be receiving a boost from the Democratic Convention, and Romney’s "47 percent" remarks appear to have affected the polls. Through the next month, the latest numbers for the incumbent could subside.

Still, Obama seems to have many paths to victory. With less than six weeks to go until Election Day, Romney's strategy is likely focused on the upcoming series of debates -- two of the three are in “Lean Obama” states, Colorado and Florida -- and on making a strong case to the few undecided voters that remain.

Tiger to sit out Saturday morning session

MEDINAH, Ill. -- Tiger Woods will sit out a match for the first time in his Ryder Cup history Saturday morning, while Phil Mickelson and Keegan Bradley will take aim at their third consecutive victory.

Woods had played in every match -- 30 -- he was eligible to play. Instead, captain Davis Love III will send out Webb Simpson and Bubba Watson in the first match of foursomes against Justin Rose and Ian Poulter. In the second match, Bradley and Mickelson will face Lee Westwood and Luke Donald.

Match No. 3 pits Jason Dufner and Zach Johnson, winners Friday morning, against Nicolas Colsaerts and Sergio Garcia.

The anchor match pits a rematch of the opening match of the Ryder Cup -- Jim Furyk and Brandt Snedeker against Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell.

GOOD START: USA takes 5-3 lead after Day 1

Woods and Stricker lost both of their matches Friday.

"We just don't want guys to be worn out," Love said. "We need Tiger and Steve in the afternoon. We need Tiger and Steve on Sunday. I think Tiger needs a rest. Steve needs a rest. I need a rest. And, you know, it's a team effort, and Tiger and Steve are very supportive friends of mine.

"They told me they would do whatever I asked them to do, and I can guarantee you, neither one of them are very happy about it. Not because they are sitting out; because they have to wait till (Saturday) afternoon to come back."

The pairings (times Eastern):

8:20 a.m. -- Justin Rose and Ian Poulter, Europe, vs. Webb Simpson and Bubba Watson, United States.

8:35 a.m. -- Lee Westwood and Luke Donald, Europe, vs. Keegan Bradley and Phil Mickelson, United States.

8:50 a.m. -- Nicolas Colsaerts and Sergio Garcia, Europe, vs. Jason Dufner and Zach Johnson, United States.

9:05 a.m. -- Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell, Europe, vs. Jim Furyk and Brandt Snedeker, United States.

Minnesota: Shooting Toll Rises to Six

The death toll from an attack at a sign company in Minneapolis rose to six, including the gunman, after another victim died on Friday, the police said. The gunman was identified as Andrew Engeldinger, 36, who had been fired from the business, Accent Signage Systems. Chief Tim Dolan of the Minneapolis Police Department said Mr. Engeldinger might have chosen to spare some former co-workers in the attack on Thursday. “It’s clear he did walk by some people, very clear,” Chief Dolan said. The police gave no details about why Mr. Engeldinger had been fired. A 9-millimeter semiautomatic Glock was used in the shooting, Chief Dolan said, and investigators found another gun and packaging for 10,000 rounds of ammunition in Mr. Engeldinger’s house. Among those killed were the company’s owner, Reuven Rahamim, 61, and Keith Basinski, a UPS driver. Names of other victims were not released.

In statement, spy chief’s office defends evolving accounts of Benghazi attack, cites shifting intelligence

The office of the nation’s spy chief issued a statement Friday defending the Obama administration’s accounts of the siege on a U.S. mission in Libya, saying it became clear only in the aftermath that it was “a deliberate and organized terrorist attack.”

The statement appeared aimed at quieting criticism, mostly from Republicans, of the administration’s shifting characterizations of a Sept. 11 assault that killed the U.S. ambassador to Libya and three other Americans. Officials initially described the attack as spontaneous but in recent days have said it was an act of terrorism with links to al-Qaeda.

The release from the office of Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr. came as lawmakers sought more details about the siege in Benghazi. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee sent a letter to the State Department on Thursday posing questions about intelligence in the period leading up to the attack and the adequacy of the security at U.S. compounds.

Shawn Turner, a spokesman for Clapper, said U.S. agencies have altered their assessments based on intelligence that has emerged through an ongoing investigation.

“In the immediate aftermath, there was information that led us to assess that the attack began spontaneously following protests earlier that day at our embassy in Cairo,” Turner said. That information was conveyed to administration officials as well as members of Congress.

But analysts have since “revised our initial assessments to reflect new information indicating that it was a deliberate and organized terrorist attack carried out by extremists,” Turner said. “Some of those involved were linked to groups affiliated with, or sympathetic to al-Qaeda.”

The release marks a rare instance in which the intelligence director’s office has weighed in through a public statement on details of an event overseas, let alone one that remains under investigation during a presidential campaign. In an e-mail, Turner indicated that the director’s office, while seeking to stay out of the political fray, became convinced that it should clarify the intelligence community’s position.

“I put out the message because I think it’s important that people understand that early reports are often wrong or incomplete, but our intelligence community continues to work around the clock to gather details and understand exactly what happened in Benghazi,” Turner said.

The evolving intelligence picture may explain why administration officials — including Susan E. Rice, ambassador to the United Nations — seemed adamant early on that the attack was part of a spontaneous protest triggered by an anti-Islamic video produced in the United States. It wasn’t until Sept. 20 that the head of the National Counterterrorism Center described the assault as a terrorist attack — a description echoed by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton this week.

Republicans have accused the administration of seeking to play down terrorist links at a time when President Obama has emphasized the degradation of al-Qaeda as a signature foreign policy success.

Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee and an administration ally, has deflected Republican demands that the State Department submit a report on the attack to Congress within 30 days. Instead, the panel submitted a letter seeking answers as a State Department review led by former U.S. ambassador Tom Pickering gets underway.

Germany's Merkel renews pledge to stabilize euro

German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday renewed her pledge to stabilize the eurozone, and her insistence that it will be a step-by-step process, as she honored one of the currency's founders - long-serving predecessor Helmut Kohl.

Merkel's comments, at an event marking the 30th anniversary of Kohl's rise to power, came hours after Germany's president ratified the eurozone's permanent €500 billion ($645 billion) rescue fund. That clears the way for it to start work next month.

Kohl was a driving force behind the euro and remains an iconic figure in Merkel's conservative party. Bailing out eurozone strugglers hasn't been popular in Germany and has caused particular unease in parts of Merkel's center-right governing coalition.

Kohl's name is "inextricably linked" with Europe's currency union, Merkel said, adding that he recognized that "a common currency would make European integration irreversible."

Merkel added that "the euro is far more than a currency." But she also pointed to promises made when the euro was introduced to justify her hard-nosed approach to the crisis - helping struggling countries while insisting on deficit-cutting and economic reform efforts in exchange.

"The promise of stability also was linked with the introduction of the euro - we feel committed to this promise in the German government," Merkel said.

"We will continue to do everything necessary to develop the economic and currency union so that it is stabilized permanently - so we are fighting the causes of the current government debt crisis not with a single strike but with a sequence of measures."

Ratification in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, of the permanent eurozone rescue fund was delayed for months by court challenges, but the country's highest court cleared the way for it to go ahead earlier this month.

At Thursday's event, Merkel presented Kohl - the leader of West Germany and then reunited Germany from 1982 to 1998 - with a new postage stamp bearing his image.

Kohl, now 82, said he wants to continue helping work to further the "great aim" of European unity.