Former Ruling Party Expected to Win Mexico Vote

The polls closed Sunday evening as Mexicans picked a new president, a three-way race widely expected to sweep its former ruling party back into power amid anxieties about drug violence and a limp economy.

Enrique Peña Nieto of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, known as the PRI, had a big lead in pre-election polls released Wednesday. Mr. Peña Nieto had about 45% support versus 29% for leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador and 24% for Josefina Vázquez Mota, Mexico's first major female candidate and a member of President Felipe Calderón's conservative National Action Party, or PAN.

However, the polls assigned undecided voters—as many as 20% of Mexicans—to all candidates, which tends to exaggerate the PRI's support. So, a victory for the front-runner, Mr. Peña Nieto, is far from assured.

Many eyes, however, weren't on Mr. Peña Nieto but on Mr. López Obrador, a former Mexico City mayor who narrowly lost the 2006 race and refused to accept defeat. Some in Mexico expected him to challenge another loss this time around, too, adding to election-day tension.

Mexico's entire congress, town halls across the country, and six governor's posts were also up for grabs, with the PRI expected to do well at all levels.

"I'll show you who this place is voting for," said Óscar López, 44, next to a shantytown outside Mexico City as he lifted up a sweater with Mr. Peña Nieto's logo. He complained of a divided left, as well as conservative politicians who had failed to deliver in previous presidencies. "We are voting for the PRI."

Others said they were backing Mr. López Obrador. Oziel Castillo, 24, said he had voted for Mr. López Obrador, but had even considered writing in "Batman and Robin" as a protest against past presidents' inability to deal with drug crime. "He's the least worst," said Mr. Castillo, a restaurant manager who lives in Mexico State.

The election could be a watershed for the former ruling party which controlled Mexican politics for 71 years and cast a long shadow over Mexican history. The party, based more on holding power than ideology, held a virtual monopoly on Mexican politics before finally losing the presidency to the PAN's Vicente Fox in 2000.

But Mexicans have been often disappointed by the performance of the PAN in power. While the middle class expanded, overall annual economic growth averaged around just 2% since 2000. A crackdown against organized crime groups began in 2006 and took down many top drug lords, but failed to calm a civil war among drug cartels that has claimed at least 55,000 lives. The party itself has fractured: Mr. Fox threw his support behind Mr. Peña Nieto this year.

"There has been exasperation with the PAN, despite many years of difficult work they have done," said Enrique Krauze a renowned Mexican historian who wrote a book on the Mexican presidency.

A big question from today's vote will be whether the PRI can gain control of congress. No Mexican party has controlled the legislature since the PRI lost its majority in 1997, and bickering among the three big parties has prevented the country from passing major reforms. As a result, Mexico has watched other emerging economies like China and Brazil gain investor attention.

Mr. Peña Nieto has promised to kick-start Mexico's economy by taking on the very economic changes that have eluded previous presidents, including opening Mexico's closed energy sector to private investment, overhauling Mexico's tax code to lift paltry government revenue, and rewrite labor laws to make it easier to hire and fire workers.

But even if the PRI gains a majority, which analysts say is unlikely, it will need support from one of the two rival parties for any constitutional overhaul like opening the energy sector. This could prove difficult as the PRI hardly warmed up to free-market proposals by Mr. Calderón's administration, denying his party legislative victories before the election. The PRI itself isn't entirely united around a reform agenda either, and Mr. Peña Nieto would have to take on vested interests and some party elders if he seeks large changes.

Also closely watched will be the reaction of the leftist Mr. López Obrador. In 2006, he alleged a giant fraud had taken place to ensure the victory of Felipe Calderón, and launched street protests which shut down the capital for months. When Mr. Calderón took oath in December that year, Mr. López Obrador declared himself president and formed a shadow government.

"He's going to do exactly what he did six years ago," said Manuel Suarez, a former governor of Mexico's central bank who teaches at American University.

Mr. López Obrador's advisers said they weren't planning to mobilize anyone yet. "We will win," said César Yáñez, the campaign spokesman.

But the campaign has already filed complaints to Mexico's election watchdog before the election and an official on Mr. López Obrador's team took journalists to locations of possible vote buying on Saturday in Mr. Peña Nieto's Mexico State. Several officials there had alleged widespread instances of PRI supporters offering voters money to borrow their voting cards and vote. But the leftist team produced no evidence that this had actually occurred.

Still, such accusations could be potent if Mr. López Obrador mounts a legal challenge to the result. Ms. Vázquez Mota has also filed complaints with the watchdog alleging vote buying as well.

Mexico's election watchdog the Federal Electoral Institute said there would be no chance of fraud during the election. "It is technically impossible," said Benito Nacif, an official at the department.

Another wild-card is Mexico's growing student movement which played a central role during the campaign. They alleged that television broadcaster Televisa had made an unfair effort to back Mr. Peña Nieto, something the network denies. The students began street protests in the weeks leading up to the election, some of which attracted tens of thousands and were widely reported by the media, including Televisa itself.

On Saturday the group held a march that attracted about 10,000 people, attracting a wider segment of the Mexican population besides students. Some were farmers who brandished machetes and torches. The protests seemed ready to continue as organizers handed out pamphlets announcing new marches for Monday afternoon.

Héctor San Martín, a member of the group, had volunteered as an election monitor and said he was encouraging other young people to vote that day. He said that while the broadcaster had improved its coverage of other candidates and of the student movement, he felt that "they still lie through their teeth."

Analysts say no matter who wins, Mexico's drug war is likely to rage for the next few years, until the country can build up its police and judicial system to pursue gang members. All three major candidates have said they would keep central parts of Mr. Calderón's strategy, including having army troops in hot spots until new police forces can be trained.

The election is likely to spell a big defeat for Mexico's conservative party which struggled for much of the 20th century to gain a foothold in Mexican politics, and has watched its power erode 12 years after having taken the presidency.

Ms. Vázquez Mota seemed to galvanize voters early in the campaign as she rose to second place initially. But the media quickly turned on the candidate after a series of gaffes and an apparent inability to articulate her platform, and many Mexicans smarted at the idea of establishing the PAN as a new political monopoly like the PRI after two previous conservative presidents. Mr. Fox's endorsement of her rival was another striking blow.

"[They have run] a bad campaign not marking a sufficient distance with Calderón," Mr. Suarez, the economist, said.